Danielle Belgrave

Research Associate

University of Manchester
Institute of Inflammation & Repair
Respiratory Research Group
2nd Floor
Education & Research Centre

University Hospital of South Manchester
Southmoor Road
M23 9LT


I am an applied statistician working within the Manchester Asthma and Allergy Study (MAAS). Within this population-based birth cohort, we investigate complex chronic disorders which start in early life. My current projects involve the understanding and implementation of various longitudinal and latent variable methods to analyse the developmental trajectories of asthma and allergic diseases in childhood. A large part of my methodological work involves the exploitation of Bayesian machine learning methods, based on probabilistic graphical models alongside classical statistical-epidemiological models. I am also investigating genotype-phenotype asscoiations in these complex diseases.

Memberships of Committees and Professional Bodies

Member of the Royal Statistical Society

Junior Member of the European Acadamy of Allergy and Clinical Immunology

Methodological Knowledge

Longitudinal methods

Growth, trajectory and structural equation modelling

Latent variable modelling

Multiple imputation methods for handling missing data

Survival analysis of multiple event data

Statistical Machine Learning


BSc Business Mathematics and Statistics (London School of Economics)

MSc in Statistics (University College London)

Dissertation: Investigation of the Placebo effect in Randomised Clinical Trials for Depression

PhD in Medicine (Statistical Machine Learning)

Thesis: Probabilistic causal and hypothesis-generating models for asthma and allergies developing in childhood



  • Belgrave, D., Buchan, I., Bishop, C., Lowe, L., Simpson, A. & Custovic, A (2014). Trajectories of lung function during childhood. Am J Respir Crit Care Med, 189(9), 1101-9. eScholarID:230122 | PMID:24606581 | DOI:10.1164/rccm.201309-1700OC
  • Belgrave, D., Simpson, A. & Custovic, A (2014). Challenges in interpreting wheeze phenotypes: the clinical implications of statistical learning techniques. Am J Respir Crit Care Med, 189(2), 121-3. eScholarID:218425 | PMID:24428643 | DOI:10.1164/rccm.201312-2206ED
  • Bønnelykke, K., Sleiman, P., Nielsen, K., Kreiner-Møller, E., Mercader, J., Belgrave, D., den Dekker, H., Husby, A., Sevelsted, A., Faura-Tellez, G., Mortensen, L., Paternoster, L., Flaaten, R., Mølgaard, A., Smart, D., Thomsen, P., Rasmussen, M., Bonàs-Guarch, S., Holst, C., Nohr, E., Yadav, R., March, M., Blicher, T., Lackie, P., Jaddoe, V., Simpson, A., Holloway, J., Duijts, L., Custovic, A., Davies, D., Torrents, D., Gupta, R., Hollegaard, M., Hougaard, D., Hakonarson, H. & Bisgaard, H (2014). A genome-wide association study identifies CDHR3 as a susceptibility locus for early childhood asthma with severe exacerbations. Nat Genet, 46(1), 51-5. eScholarID:230117 | PMID:24241537 | DOI:10.1038/ng.2830
  • Danielle C. M. Belgrave, Iain Buchan, Christopher Bishop, Lesley Lowe, Angela Simpson, Adnan Custovic. (2014). TRAJECTORIES OF LUNG FUNCTION DURING CHILDHOOD. A J R C C M, eScholarID:222564 | DOI:10.1164/rccm.201309-1700OC
  • Deliu, Matea; Belgrave, Danielle; Simpson, Angela; Murray, Clare S; Kerry, Gina; Custovic, Adnan. (2014). Impact of rhinitis on asthma severity in school-age children. Allergy, eScholarID:230121 | PMID:24958195 | DOI:10.1111/all.12467
  • Kljaic-Bukvic, B., Blekic, M., Aberle, N., Curtin, J., Hankinson, J., Semic-Jusufagic, A., Belgrave, D., Simpson, A. & Custovic, A (2014). Genetic variants in endotoxin signalling pathway, domestic endotoxin exposure and asthma exacerbations. Pediatr Allergy Immunol, eScholarID:230118 | PMID:24902762 | DOI:10.1111/pai.12258
  • Sahiner, U., Jusufagic, A., Curtin, J., Birben, E., Belgrave, D., Sackesen, C., Simpson, A., Yavuz, T., Akdis, C., Custovic, A. & Kalayci, O (2014). Polymorphisms of endotoxin pathway and endotoxin exposure: in-vitro IgE synthesis and replication in a birth cohort. Allergy, eScholarID:231718 | PMID:25102764 | DOI:10.1111/all.12504
  • Semic-Jusufagic, A., Belgrave, D., Pickles, A., Telcian, A., Bakhsoliani, E., Sykes, A., Simpson, A., Johnston, S. & Custovic, A (2014). Assessing the association of early life antibiotic prescription with asthma exacerbations, impaired antiviral immunity, and genetic variants in 17q21: a population-based birth cohort study. Lancet Respir Med, 2(8), 621-30. eScholarID:230114 | PMID:24835835 | DOI:10.1016/S2213-2600(14)70096-7


  • Belgrave DC, Simpson A, Semic-Jusufagic A, Murray CS, Buchan I, Pickles A, Custovic A. (2013). Joint modeling of parentally reported and physician-confirmed wheeze identifies children with persistent troublesome wheezing. J Allergy Clin Immunol, eScholarID:203867
  • Belgrave, D., Custovic, A. & Simpson, A (2013). Characterizing wheeze phenotypes to identify endotypes of childhood asthma, and the implications for future management. Expert Rev Clin Immunol, 9(10), 921-36. eScholarID:211638 | PMID:24128156 | DOI:10.1586/1744666X.2013.836450
  • Curtin J, Simpson A, Belgrave D, Semic-Jusufagic A, Custovic A, Martinez F. (2013). Methylation of IL-2 promoter at birth alters the risk of asthma exacerbations during childhood. Clinical Experimental Allergy, 43(3), 304-311. eScholarID:210696
  • Lazic N, Roberts G, Custovic A, Belgrave D, Bishop CM, Winn J, Curtin JA, Hasan Arshad S, Simpson A. (2013). Multiple atopy phenotypes and their associations with asthma: similar findings from two birth cohorts. Allergy, 68(6), 764-770. eScholarID:202260
  • Mölter A, Agius RM, de Vocht F, Lindley S, Gerrard W, Lowe L, Belgrave D, Custovic A, Simpson A. (2013). Long Term Exposure to PM10 and NO2 in Association with Lung Volume and Airway Resistance in the MAAS Birth Cohort. Environmental Health Perspectives, 121(10), 1232-1238. eScholarID:202261 | DOI:10.1289/ehp.1205961
  • Prosperi, M., Belgrave, D., Buchan, I., Simpson, A. & Custovic, A (2013). Challenges in interpreting allergen microarrays in relation to clinical symptoms: A machine learning approach. Pediatr Allergy Immunol, eScholarID:211637 | PMID:24131308 | DOI:10.1111/pai.12139
  • Prosperi, M., Sahiner, U., Belgrave, D., Sackesen, C., Buchan, I., Simpson, A., Yavuz, T., Kalayci, O. & Custovic, A (2013). Challenges in identifying asthma subgroups using unsupervised statistical learning techniques. Am J Respir Crit Care Med, 188(11), 1303-12. eScholarID:218422 | PMID:24180417 | DOI:10.1164/rccm.201304-0694OC
  • Wang, R., Custovic, A., Simpson, A., Belgrave, D., Lowe, L. & Murray, C (2013). Differing associations of bmi and body fat with asthma and lung function in children. Pediatr Pulmonol, eScholarID:218424 | PMID:24166845 | DOI:10.1002/ppul.22927


  • Angela Simpson, Adnan Custovic, Robert Tepper, Penelope Graves, Debra A. Stern, Marcus Jones, Jenny Hankinson, John A. Curtin, Jiakai Wu, Mario Blekic, Blazenka Kljaic Bukvic, Neda Aberle, Susana Marinho, Danielle Belgrave, Wayne J. Morgan, and Fernando D. Martinez. (2012). Genetic Variation in Vascular Endothelial Growth Factor-A and Lung Function. American Journal of Respiratory and Critical Care Medicine, 185(11), 1197-1204. eScholarID:165612 | DOI:10.1164/rccm.201112-2191OC


  • Belgrave D, Bishop CM, Custovic A, Simpson A, Semic-Jusufagic A, Pickles A, Buchan IA. Comparison of Bayesian and Frequentist Methods for Identifying Markers of Susceptibility to Asthma. Presented at International Workshop of Statistical Modelling. Valencia. eScholarID:156933
  • Nicolaou N, Murray C, Belgrave D,Poorafshar M, Simpson A, Custovic A. (2011). Quantification of specific IgE to whole peanut extract and peanut components in prediction of peanut allergy. The Journal of allergy and clinical immunology, 127(3), eScholarID:156930